Background of the 4G Evolution

Currently, there is no formal definition for 4G It is a term used to describe the next step in the evolution of wireless communication. Several terms are also describing the concept, such as "Super 3G" or "Next Generation Wireless". ITU has been committed to announce a 4G definition. There is general agreement among experts that 4G is a new converged system that will provide at least 100Mbps connectivity to the broadband users. 4G is expected to offer data rates of 100 Mbps for mobile applications and 1 Gbps for nomadic applications and should be achievable between the years 2010 and 2011.

The current defined objectives for 4G include

• Fully integrated IP solution
• "Anytime, Anywhere"
• Seamless connectivity- wireless and wireline
• Global access and interconnection
• Interoperability
• Data rates of at least 100Mbps
• Spectrally efficient system

There are several applications that could be supported and leveraged in the 4G due to the advanced environment. These include mobile commerce with an emphasis on mobile banking, peer-to-peer networking and full usage of the advanced Internet services in the converged cloud. This cloud be defined as a "Communications Technology Ecosystem" (Figure 1) with a plethora of different services that will give users a more convenient and easy lifestyle.

 
Figure 1: A suggested heterogeneous digital ecosystem 

Since 4G is not well defined yet, there is no defined demand or market potential as yet. Therefore, we are lacking forecasts or predictions that could help the operators to strategically plan for the expected market with a time table. An interesting approach to this ill-defined problem is to evaluate each country's readiness to deploy 4G based on a set of criteria such as technological, business, legal, and policy considerations.

Investment in 3G in most cases and countries has not paid off yet and will not for the next 5 years. Nonetheless, operators need to decide on the best standard to invest in for the long run to provide for the future needs of their customers. Many are still debating on the WiMAX and the LTE choice.

An approach to study and evaluate the 4G readiness, using a quantitative analysis applied to a sample of two different groups of countries developedand emerging. We aim to assess the 4G predictions at a national level and answer the following research questions:

"Which countries are ahead in 4G adoption?" "Since the markets are still shaping up, how could one forecast demand from the operators perspective, and rank order the markets using the operators and vendors current trials and knowledge?"

To our knowledge, this is the first study that is trying to conduct an early assessment of the 4G status of some of the most important telecom markets. The "4G readiness" is defined as an index, building upon the literature and the e-readiness concept as well as the non-market factors.

Along the same lines, we expect that a country's 4G high ranking could be more an status and indicator of innovation, supported with an advanced digital environment rather than a natural path of technological evolution.

Also, there are two categories of factors that are considered to drive the 4G readiness of each market including the technology and the consumer/business spending. We proportionally weigh each factor to the highest value (percentage of each index). We expect to observe major differences in the spectrum law from country to country, that play a role into the index's estimation but not a significant one, since the migration from HSPA to the LTE does not require any major regulatory changes but rather investment planning. The scalable bandwidth will allow the operators to migrate their networks and users from HSPA to LTE over time.