4G Drivers and SCENARIOS | WIMAX VS. LTE

The rising mobile subscribers by 2011, estimating over 4 billion, in combination with converged systems and applications are the main contributors of the 4G evolution (GSM world 2009). Several services are expected to drive to the 4G converged ecosystem but the future operators revenues are data services and mainly entertainment services. Three services that exist in today's markets are expected to play a significant role in the future and into a more advanced mode. These are music, mobile games and mobile TV.

The new mobile user's lifestyle is increasing needs capacity, although the ‘walled garden’ might still be a limitation restricting the customer's experience. The users are changed from consumers to producers of content such as photos, videos etc. Several applications will drive the mobile broadband market globally, including:

• Web 2.0,
• Online blogs,
• Mobile music,
• Location Based Services (LBS),
• Multimedia messaging,
• Gambling and
• Mobile TV.

There are a few scenarios discussed including WiBro, which is expected to evolve during 2010 and 2015 and attempting to cover different markets through restructuring and transition into 4G. For the next 5 years Verizon network will evolve into a 28Mbps download speed, leading to an early 4G LTE adoption compared to Vodafone.

These scenarios could be summarized as following:

1. Independent 4G system with one standard, the 3GPP LTE
2. Transition from 3G into 4G with existing (3GPP LTE) or new service providers WiMAX and WiBro
3. Co-existence of different standards
4. Spread of open transmission

To explain the above cases, we claim that history matters and the path dependent concept can really explain the long-term outcome based on initial conditions. The 4G development depends on the initial conditions as shaped from 3G in most of the cases. Based on the ‘Increasing Returns’, and ‘Path Dependency’, where alternatives are possible, and regarding the standards, "the one selected and heavily invested is good enough' or even optimal and remains in use because it becomes established in use". This theory is matching the scenario of different standards coexistence that will interact in the ecosystem and complement each other referring to an advanced LTE or LTE+ and WiMAX that will be established and standardized as 802.16e that offers advanced mobility. This is what usually occurs in technological development scenarios.